Saturday, February 25, 2012

Braun Logic: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc. MLB Approved

I somewhat recall when Sheldon's character in "The Big Bang Theory" (played by Jim Parsons) said, "That is post hoc, ergo proptor hoc" about something Leonard or Penny.  I remember the phrase, and in this case I remember what Ryan Bruan said in his press conference, "The system, in the way that it was applied to me in this case, was fatally flawed."

Ryan Braun's suspension getting lifted does not let me fucking care one iota whether or not he's innocent or guilty.  I care about how we got to the conclusion.  Post hoc ergo proptor hoc.  Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus / Twitter: @kevin_goldstein) and Jason Parks (Baseball Prospectus / Twitter: @professorparks) are indifferent, but they brought up the stark facts, "The reaction has been weird"...It's stupid beyond embarrassing returning the MVP award, jumping to conclusions.  It was an open story to tell, and it got fucking told.  And the way how the story got told, was great, the analysis was great, which I agree with Kevin.  The conclusion; however, was wrong.  How do you just claim that Ryan Braun did not test positive?  Yes the sample was not handled properly, but in what way or world should it be handled?  He tested positive.  When we lead to the motive, nobody gives a shit.  It's like the fucking meter maid giving you a ticket because you were two seconds past the time your ticket expired.  The meter maid doesn't care if you were buckling up your child.  You should have been driving on your merry way.  Not jerking off extra seconds where someone could be looking for a spot.

So I'm angry.  I understand that there is a fatal flaw and it starts with Ryan Braun and it continues to get pushed by Major League Baseball.

I got pulled to this rant because (1) I've been very angry at work, and I need an outlet to let some information out and (2) while sitting at the table with Leah, I saw the words on the ESPN teleprompter over the ESPN TV that was slightly behind me, "Fatally Flawed."  In my observation Ryan Braun appears to be a likable player, who plays hard, hustles, and does a lot of good things, but when I heard he saying the process is fatally flawed, he just set back Union and Management relations for the next 100 years.  Everyone knows that the process is always fatally flawed.  It just happens that this will get cleaned up and will have continuous litigation for other Major and Minor League Baseball players who tested positive.  When you piss in a cup and it doesn't get proved positive in five seconds, you are leaving to imagination what could happen.  Did that piss suddenly got more potent with stanozolol?  Did the tester or someone working at the laboratory ejaculated into the specimen?  Did Ryan Braun masturbate prior to testing which could elevate testosterone levels?  I don't know, and knowing today's media, everyone jumps into conclusions without following up with all the facts to determine an absolute.

So, I don't have a problem that Ryan Braun tested positive in December.  There was a sample that Ryan Braun pissed in, and the test showed that there was a performance enhancing drug.  But in the end, months later, when getting to the resolution; we can't suspend you because the test was not handled properly does not determine that if the sample was handled properly it would have tested negative.  You are jumping to a conclusion because event A happened, therefore event B is the result of event A.  Ryan Braun tested positive because the tester left the sample on his desk for 44 hours without refrigeration.  Nobody in the media stated that if the sample is not handled properly in that amount of time it causes a performance enhancing drug to form in that urine.  Nobody was able to tell that Ryan Braun is clean.  Ryan Braun used brain to selectively induce the media into stating he's clean using a fallacy argument.  And a lot of people don't get that.  We live in an age where people are hand-fed the information and take it for what it is; not discernment.  What is it taking a prospect list or a projection list for a Fantasy Draft, and stating this is true, this is accurate?  You get assholes like this every year praying at the altars of some writer, some personality to the field and take it as prophecy.

Fans of this media, you continue to get suckered into this sheepish mindset, and become too assuming to believe.  Educate yourself before coming to a decision; else you get proven into a sap, because everything you believe is "post hoc, ergo proptor hoc." End of rant.

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