Monday, January 31, 2011

Talent and Intangibles

The key foundation of understanding employees comes from the foundation of KSA's: Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities. There are other attributes as well, but when we think of the metrics used in sports to define the athlete; it's all about what they are capable of doing, the knowledge of how to do it, their level of success doing it, the possession of the athlete's having to use what they know, the skills possessed. I currently see this in my line of work of job developing, where I am the one looking at the end advocating for people who need to know about the job the could be doing. The gap between what they know and what they don't. So, it's very important; whether it is on the Fantasy Baseball, the real sports level, and the job seeker, that employers know what they are getting and to anticipate what they do not know.

Talent and the Environment
When measuring a talent, you review the KSAs compared to your client (athlete, baseball card, or consumer). When you talk about healthy lineup construction; you try to match the athlete's feasibility: how they learn, apply, and use KSAs to the positions in the lineup and defensively to maximize your ability to have the team perform. In terms of Fantasy Baseball, you look at the construction of the team in respect to your league. Are you playing traditional roto and what you gauge your teams KSAs to achieve the counting and rate stats that makes you successful. With the potential employee, it's the mix: you look for the utilization of KSAs as well as the rate stats to measure how successful that person is. This is why sometimes we look at all of these baseball trades and wonder why some bad deals are done.

Recently, the Texas Rangers signed third baseman, Adrian Beltre to a contract; which now displaces Michael Young from his position, and possibly the lineup. The Rangers say he will be a super-utility guy, primarily playing 1B and DH. The Rangers had moved Young twice, twice for young players in their organization due to Young's inability to play the position well. However, what makes young successful is that he's a team guy. It is the reason why he's still a Texas Ranger. But his skill sets are being phased out. On the real baseball scale, Young will still be viable. On the Fantasy Baseball scale, his average draft position, ADP, should fall because he no longer will play every day. Young won't accumulate 600-650 PAs this season, and thus the counting stats will decline. His rate stats, some say are in decline, while others say the stats are not feasible for him to be the top 10 at any position. Henceforth, the job developer would think that he needs to be traded to somewhere that the Rangers can obtain value, and another team could maintain value; or as the Rangers thought...we will keep this guy around.

The Intangibles to Environment
Michael Young's viability to the Rangers is his ability to be the team guy; the guy who's past his prime and is able to be a measuring stick on how others should view their work ethic. As according to the Baseball prospectus podcast from Wednesday, Jan 26th , those are individuals who continue to get jobs. The example of Mike Sweeney was very noting. Sweeney, a very good player and clubhouse guy; clearly with very limited skills, still gets contracts. It's the reason why Henry Blanco still gets work, Julio Franco had got work, and from listening the Baseball history podcast, even Frank Thomas (not the Big Hurt) continued to get work despite plateauing. They become essential to the team without the statistical sense. It's like sometimes looking at rate stats. ERA, Batting AVG, and WHIP only tell a portion of the game, while stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) become huge. General Managers look for these guys to help them win championships; which Fantasy Baseball managers consider these as sleepers; where others don't expect the .280 15 80 that Young could be useful as a replacement Corner Infielder.

When I look at this in my line of work, you look at metrics. You prescreen the applicant. You may review the resume, contact previous employers, find stats on the applicant. The same should be done with GMs, real and fantasy, that help define lineup and roster construction. This also means you look for guys that makes the team successful. I remember one time long ago, I don't need 6 A-Rods and 5 Rogers to win a championship. But I will need the Shane Victorino's, Jose Bautista's surprises, and Mike Leake's limited track record, with the guys who do the things as Cory Schwartz will say "Clockwork Orange." Because in the end, employers get all the information for the known, and anticipate that unknown which makes the Edwin Encarnarcion's different from the Jose Bautista's, the Mike Leake's different from the Jason McDonald's, and the Shane Victorino's different from the Franklin Gutierrez's. The individual talent is only part of a team's dynamic.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

A Long Hiatus

97 weeks since I have blogged about; anything except for the little blurb that I put on a facebook note in August. In the past 97 weeks, I have had gone through two Fantasy Football and Baseball seasons; mostly mediocrity and failure; and I have had 3 jobs since then. I also try to speak to people carefully, hopes to be more goal oriented by solving problems and moving on. There are things that have unchanged too. Same fiancee, living in the same apartment since I was 9, same moping of our dilapidated transit system. Also an undying love for sports; especially Baseball.
Fantasy Baseball
A couple of things to note. Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz recently came out with their List of Twelve. The list may be 15, but their work is still pristine, yet going big-time on the MLB Network. Yovanni Gallardo, Francisco Liriano, and Josh Johnson will probably be targeted and drafted above their value, but I am intrigued at where Jonathan Sanchez, Johnny Cueto, Shaun Marcum and Jason Hammel will get valued. Sanchez pitching in San Francisco and having to pitch in ballparks like PETCO Park and Dodger stadium on the road definitiely add to his high K-rate. His ERA may go up to 3.60-3.70, but he puts up Ace-like Strikeout numbers. Shaun Marcum, I find similar to Sanchez, but this season Marcum will have to prove it in Milwaukee. Miller Park is more pitching friendly than The Rogers Centre, and Marcum places similar numbers with a better walk rate. Both Sanchez and Marcum are flyball pitchers, but also the NL Central I believe contains weaker teams with the Pirates, Astros, and Cubs.
Johnny Cueto and Jason Hammel are on my interested list because they have not been able to put it together for a season without massive struggles. Cueto has a great strikeout rate, but he's prone to a 5-6 start stretch where I wonder he needs to get cut. Jason Hammel struggled at the end of last season; however overall his two seasons in Colorado showed improved K/BB and B/9 rates for two consecutive years. Hammel is someone that I would rather pitch and ditch with, but he may likely get drafted.
Mike Pelfrey is on their list of 12, but Pelfrey's better bet is more of a real baseball pitcher than Fantasy. "Big Pelf" comes with a low K rate, but he makes my interesting list.
Mike Pelfrey: Opening Day Starter
I was highly intrigued by this move. Pelfrey for all intensive purposes has been the Mets pitcher of development since 2006. Now, in his age 27 season, it's the approximate age where a baseball player puts it together. Pelfrey did improve in ERA, WHIP, and mental toughness. Even Pelfrey's struggle in June/July, he still was unflappable, and kept on grinding. Eventually he put a good season together, despite the negatives of rate stats declining throughout the season. Pelfrey simply made pitches. As the opening day starter, Pelfrey's development is going to be about making good pitches and using a fairly good defense (4th in NL in 2010). His Spring Training is going to be vital to see if the Mets bestowed too much on what some fans say slow-developing/fraudelent.